Can PDP  Evolve Into A Formidable Opposition  Party Ahead of 2027?

From Paul Orude Bauchi

If the recent meetings  are anything to go by, then the Chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Governor’s forum, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State may beworking in tandem with stakeholders to reposition the crisis- ridden party into a formidable force ahead of the 2027 general election.

The departure of notable PDP politicians to the ruling All Progressives Congress seems like a set back ahead of 2027.  The Bauchi State governor and many die-in -the wool members still believe the PDP can bounce back  with reports of that former President Atiku Abubakar in lead talks to form a mega party as the northern bloc gear up to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027 over poor performance.

Governor Mohammed has been hailed for his tactical deployment of political sagacity, especially when the chips are down. Even before he famously moved the Doctrine of Necessity that launched him to prominence, his rise from political obscurity to popularity is a script that tough men are made of.

Nicknamed the Giant killer for defeating a sitting governor  in 2015 to occupy the Bauchi South Senatorial seat in 2007, the governor is famed for taking opponents several times his size with bravery.   His emergence as governor in  2019 came against all odds; cruising to a second term as governor was purely based on performance and wide acceptability by the electorate.

Thus whether his political trajectory  has prepared him to lead the PDP governors’ forum at such an historical time is a matter for history . However, the  Chairman appeared bent to work with stakeholders of like minds to reposition the party to its once formidable status.

Emergence of Bala Mohammed as PDP Governors’ Forum Chairman

Governor Bala Mohammed was elected as the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum in June 2023 along with  Siminalayi Fubara  as Vice Chairman amidst prolonged internal crisis that had lingered since 2022.

Mohammed described his emergence as a mark of honour to him and the entire people of Bauchi State, and urged his colleagues to support him to move the forum and the PDP forward.  He has not left anyone in doubt about his willingness to make an impact.

To his credit, the PDP governors’ forum had met regularly with various stakeholders, including the National Working Committe, the Board of Trustees to resolve its internal problems. The bold step and decisions taken by Mohammed’s forum and PDP stakeholders did not go down well with the FCT minister at some points, a development that strained the once cordial relationship between Mohammed and Wike.  Despite the risk of opposing the likes of Wike, Mohammed continues to exhibit courage and tenacity in the bid to rescue the soul of the party.

PDP Stakeholders meeting in Abuja

Mohammed yet again led governors elected on the platform of the PDP to meet in Abuja on Sunday, at the Bauchi governor’s lodge in Asokoro. The crucial meeting was attended by former governors who are members, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike.

The serving governors who attended the meeting included Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Ademola Adeleke (Osun), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Lawrence Ewuhrudjakpo (deputy governor, Bayelsa).

Former governors included Sam Egwu (Ebonyi), Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Seriake Dickson (Bayelsa), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Ahmed Makarfi (Kaduna), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Samuel Orton (Benue), Adamu Muazu (Bauchi), Achike Udenwa (Imo), Jonah Hang (Plateau), Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Udom Emmanuel (Akwa Ibom), Gabriel Suswam (Benue), Aminu Tambuwal, (Sokoto), Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano), and Bukola Saraki (Kwara).

Umar Damagum, acting chairman of the PDP, was also in attendance at the stakeholders meeting where party chieftains deliberated on internal cohesion and preparations for the 2027 elections. The meeting was the first since one of the PDP governors, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, dumped the PDP for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The party’s National Working Committee members at the meeting included the acting national chairman Amb. Umar Damagum; National Organizing Secretary, Umar Bature, and National Legal Adviser, Kamardeen Ajibade.

The PDP also set up a seven-man reconciliation committee headed by former President of the Senate Bukola Saraki to prepare for a “rancour-free” national executive council (NEC) meeting scheduled for May 27, as well as the forthcoming national convention.

Lawal, Muftwang, Mba, Dickson, Ibrahim Dankwambo, former governor of Gombe, and Ikpeazu are members of the committee.

Current Challenge of PDP

The opposition party is grappling with a prolonged internal crisis which has lingered since 2022.The ranks of the PDP has been split over a series of crises ranging from national chairmanship seat, national secretary position, the tussle for party leadership in Rivers State, and the congresses conducted.

Others are court case on the emergency rule in Rivers State in which the PDP governors challenged the state of emergency declaration by the Supreme Court that removed Fubara from office for six months.The Abuja meeting comes ahead of the proposed National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the party which has been postponed six times.

Impact of Mohammed’s leadership of PDP Governors’ Forum

The decision of the governors elected on the platform of the PDP to elect Mohammed as Chairman will most pay off despite the current struggles of the party. Many reasons account for this bold prediction.

First of all, analysts privy to the party believe that Mohammed will succeed with one of his biggest advantages being that many of the governors still remain in the party despite the internal wrangling. Apart from Delta State governor that recently left for the APC,  those who hold this perspective argued that the PDP remains a strong opposition party with governors of Bauchi, Taraba, Adamawa, Zamfara, Osun, Akwa Ibom, (Enugu), Plateau, Oyo, Rivers and Bayelsa still intact.  Those with this opinion believe this is a good development for the PDP.  For example, when you study the current politics of Bauchi, Governor Mohammed has remained in control of the party’s structure. Many members of the National Assembly are still in PDP, apart from three members of the House of Representatives that said they had left.

2027 and dynamism, complexity of election

While it is no longer news that Oborevwori has left the PDP fold, there are those who posit that the same interest that pushed the Delta State Governor can also pull other elected official of the APC to the PDP or any other party ahead of the general election 2027. It is the general belief among watchers of events that, political elections in Nigeria are often characterized by defections and counter defections. As politicians meet, political alignments are being done, decamping and returning will become the usual features in the political space among political parties and actors buoyed by divergent interests. It will be recalled that some governors of PDP who backed Wike against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in 2023 did not entirely jettison their person interests or ambitions.  Analysts of unfolding events argue that trend will manifest and apply in 2027 as most of the politicians will also strive for their personal ambitions.

The Peter Obi Factor

Some top politicians who spoke on the current PDP travails believe there is cause to celebrate by the PDP in the future due to a new found romance. Their argument is that Mohammed will succeed as the Chairman of the PDP governor’s forum and reposition the party in time for the 2027 general election despite its current internal wrangling. Those who hold this view are buttressing it on the premise of the purported alliance between the PDP and the Labour Party (LP)’s Presidential Candidate Mr Peter Obi if well exploited, this relationship can serve as a boost to PDP. Indeed Obi has visited the Bauchi state governor on several occasions recently and the picture of the children of both politicians in London have been sighted. Peter Obi is one politician in Nigeria that still commands a huge supporter’s base

Departure of El-Rufai and likes from APC

Another reason why many believe that Governor Mohammed’s leadership of the PDP Governors’ Forum will turn the current fortunes of the PDP around is because of the emergence of new alliances and parties floated politicians who are aggrieved with the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s APC government. The majority of these agreed politicians will move to these parties and alliances from the APC if the ruling party failed to meet their interest and expectations. One of the most prominent is former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasiru Elrufai who has since left the APC for the Social Democratic Party (SDP). In this camp are many who worked for the Tinubu’s candidacy but have felt sidelined and will of course leave the APC in due time to the waiting arms of PDP.

Outcome of APC Congresses

Another advantage that Governor Mohammed and the PDP stakeholders will hope to capitalize on will be the failure of the APC to handle the outcomes of its primaries across wards, states and the national level. In case of failure to address this unavoidable problem, there will be no room to accommodate all shades of interests, and the overwhelming aftermath will expectedly reach a breaking point. The clashes of interests will provide a fertile ground agreed members of the APC to leave. . The case of Bauchi provides an apt case study. Two current ministers serving in the Tinubu government – Yusuf Tuggar, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Ali Pate, Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare – have contested for governorship seat of the state in the past. They are currently harboring political ambitions to contest in 2027 for the governorship seat. Both of them are likely going to contest in the APC primaries. If at a point any of them becomes aggrieve next year. The loser may decide to support candidate of another political party other than the APC. This is because the elites are known to jettison their political differences to support a particular candidate that can protect their interests. This was the case in 2023 when former Speaker Yakbu Dogara, though a staunch member of the APC, supported the PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. Also in 2019, Bauchi elite, including APC chieftains, set differences aside to support Bala Mohammed of the PDP who eventually won.  Among these elites were Yakubu Dogara, late Yakubu Lame, and Tuggar. After Mohammed won, many of these elites later left the governor as many of them did not get what they wanted. This is a common trait of the Nigerian political elite which will repeat itself in2027.

Regular Meetings of PDP stakeholders.

To many analysts, despite current crises, PDP creates room for meeting to address issues. This they believe is as a good development as the PDP stakeholders usually try to resolve the problems in the party. PDP stakeholders have never stopped meeting despite the problems in the party. However, watchers opined that this is not the case with other political parties who are seemingly afraid to meet and brainstorm .For example, the ruling APC has planned meetings that were often cancelled in the end. In fact there are those even agitating for the removal of the national chairman of the APC Abdullahi Ganduje, So despite the currently tribulations in the PDP, if Governor Mohammed continue to put his political sagacity and acumen to bear, the current issues can be turn around for the betterment of the PDP to become a formidable force that will challenge the ruling APC in 2027