Road to 2023: Senator Mohammed and former Chief of Air Staff Saddique in epic battle to win Bauchi

The forthcoming governorship election in Bauchi State promises to be a grand battle in power scheming.  The struggle for who occupies Ramat House is between incumbent Senator Bala Mohammed and the main challenger, former Chie of Air Staff Sadique Abubakar who defeated some top politicians during the party primaries to clinch the ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC). On the other hand, Senator Mohammed had a smooth ride after suffering the loss of the Presidential ticket to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, returned to Bauchi to clinch the governorship ticket after the Secretary to the State Government who was earlier elected as the flag bearer of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), resigned, thus paving the way for the election of Mohammed by party delegates. With both politicians securing the tickets of the party, attention now turns to their chances in the 2023 general elections.

Senator Mohammed’s chances

The incumbent governor made history in the state in 2019 when he defeated the then sitting governor, Barrister Mohammed Abubakar in a keenly contested election. Bala Mohammed’s emergence was made possible with the support of former Speaker Yakubu Dogara, former minister of Special Duties in the Presidency Alhaji Bello Kirfi among other gladiators who were dissatisfied with his leadership. They worked in unison to oust the All Progressives Congress (APC) from power. Governor Mohammed emerged in a tight race. Since being sworn in 2019, has carried out massive infrastructural developments in the areas of both urban and rural roads construction, construction and rehabilitation of schools, hospitals, and housing projects. Residents across the state have felt the impact of these infrastructural developments like never before. In contrast to the four years of Barrister Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar, pundits give credit to the administration of Mohammed for making a huge difference in that regard. The administration has also supported security agencies in the state to sustain the peaceful coexistence in three years until recently. The health sector has also fared better under his leadership. The people of Bauchi State might want to reward Governor Mohammed if the massive infrastructural developments recorded with just three years are anything to go by. However, politics is much more than that. There are pockets of sentiments and some sense of marginalization among certain groups and individuals, some so powerful and can sway voters irrespective of good roads, hospitals, schools among other basic amenities that  the current administration has offered.

The Coming of Sadique

A Fulani from the famous Katagum axis that has been agitating for the governorship seat to be rotated to Bauchi North, the former Chief of staff, Sadique Abubaka has burst into the political scene like a bolt from the blues. His emergence in the governorship race is said to have sent jitters down the spine of the ruling PDP. For some elements that feel alienated, Sadique offers the opportunity for a deserved change. For instance, Dogara is one of those that have been sidelined by the administration of Bala Mohammed soon after his victory at the governorship polls. The bitterness in the Dogara’s camp stems from the feeling of being slighted after offering so much to bring the incumbent governor to power. There are cries of not being rewarded after a hard fought battle that gave PDP victory.  With Dogara’s defection to APC, his teeming supporters have followed him.  The game plan is to stop Mohammed at all cost to teach him a lesson. Indeed many agree that without Dogara’s input and resources, Mohammed wouldn’t have been elected. The results of the governorship election in Bauchi State indeed show a small margin between Mohammed and Abubakar after all votes were counted. Those in the know will argued that Dogara’s hard work made the difference otherwise Mohammed would have lost. Now when was time for reward for hard work, the Dogara camp felt the incumbent governor did not carry them along especially in appointment of Dogara’ cronies. If the dramatic elements which ended in defeat for the immediate past governor will replay, then Sadique is likely going to sail to victory. Besides, the added value of coming from the Katagum zone, Sadique is believed to have the financial muscles to stand up to Senator Mohammed. With the support of Dogara, a huge financial war chest and the federal government’s might (Sadique’s wife is a minister of the federal republic), Sadique is not a push over as being speculated, though many will accept the act that he is a political neophyte

What next?

The race is tight. Being an incumbent that has performed creditably well, civil servants in the state are disenchanted with Mohammed’s administration for key reasons: not fulfilling of campaign promises including allowances, salary arrears among others can give leeway to Sadique. The administration has sidelined major stakeholders, history might repeat itself if Mohammed stands alone without major stakeholders. However, there are sentiments that Sadique is not an indigene of the state. Already, the PDP supporters have been drumming these sentiments to whosoever cares to listen. Should this be sustained, the electorate might be swayed to stick to Mohammed. Again, it appears that Dogara’s influence in his constituency is waning.  His anointed candidate, Aminu Tukur, was defeated at the party’s primaries to choose a candidate for Bogoro/Dass./Tafawa Balewa federal Constituency. Whether Dogara still wields the same influence that led to the ousting of Abubakar is something that is left to be seen. With Mohammed, it might be a different ball game. Known as the giant killer, Mohammed burst into national limelight when he defeated then Governor Adamu Muazu to represent Bauchi South in 2007. After that as a senator he moved the doctrine of Necessity that paved the way for Goodluck Jonathan to succeed Umar YarAdua. He fought still opposition as a result of that. Whatever the credentials of the two, it is left for the electorate in Bauchi State to decide.  One thing is obvious, the governorship election in Bauchi Sate promises to be a hard fought one.